Soya beans, the top agricultural export from the U.S., may be a critical point of vulnerability as global backlash grows over President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.

On Wednesday, EU member states approved retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in response to Trump's recent tariff hikes on trade partners. These new EU measures, set to begin on April 15, follow similar actions from China and have already caused market turbulence and a decline in stock prices.

Trump’s latest move imposed a 20% tariff on EU goods and a staggering 104% on imports from China. The EU’s countermeasures will hit American steel, aluminum, and key agricultural products — especially soya beans — with tariffs likely introduced gradually.

As one of the U.S.’s most significant global exports, soya beans may become a strategic target for both the EU and China in this escalating trade dispute.

Soya beans — whether sold whole, as animal feed, or processed into oil — are central to the U.S. agricultural economy. The crop supports over 223,000 full-time jobs and generates $124 billion annually, surpassing the GDP of some smaller nations. Despite growing domestic consumption, the majority of U.S. soya is exported, with the country ranking as the second-largest global exporter.

In 2023, soya beans accounted for $27 billion of U.S. exports. China is by far the largest buyer, importing $15 billion worth, followed by the EU, especially Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands, which together purchase around $2 billion. Ironically, both China and the EU are now pushing back hardest against Trump’s tariffs.

The new tariffs have targeted key sectors: the EU faces a 20% general tariff and 25% on steel and aluminum, while China has been hit with a 104% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S.

Yes. Both China and the EU are preparing to strike back at U.S. soya exports, recognizing the crop's economic and political importance. The EU has approved retaliatory tariffs of up to €26 billion ($28 billion), including duties of up to 25% on a wide range of U.S. products, one of which is soya beans.

Meanwhile, China has already imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. soya and recently increased the total duty to 44%. A further 50% hike is scheduled, raising the total tariff on U.S. soya beans to 94%. China can afford this aggressive move because it has increasingly turned to Brazil for its soya supply since the first trade war in 2017. In 2024, Brazil exported $36.6 billion worth of soya to China, while U.S. exports fell to $12.1 billion.

U.S. farmers are calling on Trump to ease tariffs on top markets like China, the EU, and Mexico. The American Soybean Association stresses how vital China is to U.S. agriculture, with over half of all U.S. soya exports in 2024 going there. Many farmers say they can't withstand the economic pressure for long — if the trade conflict drags on post-harvest season, it could drive some out of business.

Trump’s tariff policies, enacted via executive orders, have largely bypassed Congress — but that could soon change. Some lawmakers from both parties are working on legislation that would require Congressional approval for future tariffs. The bill may struggle to pass as Republicans currently control both chambers.

Nevertheless, the political stakes are rising. Interestingly, nearly all U.S. soya exports to the EU come from Louisiana, home of Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson. Despite the local impact, Johnson has voiced support for Trump’s economic strategy, urging Americans to trust in the President’s judgment and remain patient through what he described as a rough initial phase.

Source: Al Jazeera